5 Reasons why markus soder should be the candidate for chancellor
Markus soder as the union’s candidate for chancellor in 2021? During angela merkel’s visit to a meeting of the bavarian cabinet, markus soder refused to sign a placard "markus soder candidate for chancellor? Yes" it read. But that was only a bad thing, said the minister-president.
Nevertheless, the question remains: will soder be considered as the next chancellor?? Here are five reasons why this is the case.
1. According to the polls, the majority is in favor of soder as the candidate for chancellor
The corona crisis has caused markus soder’s poll ratings to soar: in the ZDF political barometer out of 10. July, 64 percent considered the CSU leader to be a suitable candidate for the chancellorship – in march, the figure was 30 percent. So he seems to be the favorite by far, followed by olaf scholz of the SPD in second place with 48 percent. The opposing votes from the political barometer are also interesting, because here too, soder comes off best, with only 27 percent of respondents who do not see him as suitable as chancellor. Scholz, on the other hand, has almost as many opponents as supporters: 44 percent consider him unsuitable.
Soder’s direct competitor, armin laschet, is particularly unpopular. The CDU chair from north rhine-westphalia is seen by 64 percent as unsuitable for the chancellor’s post. Only annalena baerbock of the grun party can beat him with 65 percent of the votes against.
When it comes to sympathies, soder also does quite well: on a scale between -5 and +5, respondents were asked to indicate what they thought of a particular politician. Soder received an average of 2. Only angela merkel was rated better with an average of 2.7. By comparison, armin laschet, long considered the favorite in the race for the CDU party chairmanship and the chancellorship, averaged 0.5 out of 10.
Also in a recent forsa survey commissioned by RTL/ntv at 52 percent, most respondents are in favor of markus soder as the new candidate for chancellor. Among supporters of the union party, he even has 65 percent who are in favor of a possible candidacy. However, broad popular support cannot ultimately decide the K question. Because who stands for election to the post in berlin is decided by the party internally.
2. Strong backing from the CDU and CSU
Among CDU and CSU members, markus soder enjoys strong support as the next contender for angela merkel’s position. Markus soder seems to have some supporters here. The minister presidents tobias hans (saarland), michael kretschmer (saxony) and daniel gunther (schleswig-holstein) have already vowed that they can certainly imagine soder as a candidate for chancellor.
He also meets with approval in neighboring baden-wurttemberg: susanne eisenmann, the CDU’s top candidate for the next state parliamentary elections, called soder an "option i was buried" in an interview. The second-largest and quite powerful CDU state association is actually considered friedrich merz’s stronghold: state chairman thomas strobl and his father-in-law wolfgang schauble are among his supporters.
Even norbert rottgen, who is seen as more of an aubensider in the race for the chancellorship, considers soder capable of becoming chancellor. In a conversation at the "sunday regulars’ table on bavarian radio, he even called it "silly" pretending that soder was not a realistic candidate. In some circles, merkel’s visit to the cabinet is also seen as a positive signal for a possible candidacy. When asked directly, however, the chancellor held back. She will not comment on this in any way. "I can only say that bavaria has a good minister-president", she concluded her answer. Whether similar visits will also be made to laschet and co. It remains to be seen.
3. Soder managed the image change – even outside bavaria
Just two years ago, markus soder was considered the most unpopular minister-president in germany. The debate about crosses in public buildings and his statements on alleged "asylum tourism" put him in a negative light. But after he was able to remain in office despite weak election results for the CSU, soder’s image has changed noticeably.
His stance on environmental issues and willingness to work with the greens also helped. This makes him electable for broader circles, even outside of bavaria and the strictly conservative spectrum, explained political scientist wolfgang merkel to the image-newspaper.
4. Soder shows competence as crisis manager
"Only those who can master crises, those who can do their duty, can also shine at the kur", said soder as recently as the beginning of july in a conversation with the tagesspiegel. Those who fail have "no moral claim to leadership. With this statement, he only fueled the discussion about his possible candidacy even more – after all, his political actions in the corona crisis created a good reputation for him, even beyond the borders of the free state.
While chancellor candidate armin laschet drew criticism for his quick relaxations and rising infection figures in north rhine-westphalia, the CSU leader stuck to his comparatively strict course. At the same time, bavaria organized numerous aid programs for various groups that were particularly hard hit by the crisis. As the current chairman of the conference of ministers and presidents, which dealt with the pandemic at the federal level, he also proved that he can work well with the chancellor.
5. Merz, laschet and rottgen currently weak candidates for CDU
Particularly with regard to the corona crisis, the CDU’s current candidates for chancellor do not cut a good figure. On the one hand, this is reflected in the aforementioned poll results. According to the ZDF political barometer, 19 percent of voters consider armin laschet suitable for the chancellorship. Economic expert friedrich merz manages 31 percent, norbert rottgen brings up the rear with 14 percent of the vote. However, all three were considered unsuitable candidates for chancellor by more than half of the respondents.
Laschet was hit hardest by the corona crisis. For a long time, he was considered the favorite for the party chairmanship, which usually also determines the candidate for chancellor. In the meantime, rumors are already getting louder that he will be sending health minister jens spahn into the race instead. Earlier, the two had announced that they would run as a team for the CDU presidency – with spahn as their deputy.
According to political scientist merkel, the meeting between soder and the chancellor also showed that she was "anything but satisfied" with the previous candidates be. The bavarian minister president comes just in time.
Conclusion: markus soder certainly has qualities that make him a possible candidate for chancellor of the cdu. This is shown by his poll ratings and also by the statements of other politicians from the union party. According to experts, his behavior and political actions also speak for a candidacy, even if soder denies it in public. It is possible, however, that soder did not want to stand for office until the next election in 2025. Ultimately, the members of the CDU have the final say – and that will probably not be until january 2021.
Apart from that, there are also some reasons that speak against markus soder as the next candidate for chancellor.